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NVIDIA Sounding the Alarm - $100 Billion Deal With OpenAI Not Assured After All

Posted on November 20, 2025 at 09:35 PM

NVIDIA Sounding the Alarm: $100 Billion Deal With OpenAI Not Assured After All

Just months after a headline‑grabbing announcement of a $100 billion partnership between NVIDIA and OpenAI, NVIDIA has quietly reminded investors that there’s no guarantee the agreement will ever be finalized.

In September 2025, NVIDIA and OpenAI jointly revealed what looked like a landmark deal: NVIDIA would invest up to $100 billion and supply massive AI infrastructure, while OpenAI would purchase NVIDIA’s cutting‑edge chips as it built its next‑generation “AI factories.” The deal was pitched as a cornerstone of the coming AI boom. (The Guardian)

Fast‑forward to November: In its quarterly filing, NVIDIA dropped a significant caveat — in the risk‑factors section of its report, the company stated that “there is no assurance that we will enter into definitive agreements with respect to the OpenAI opportunity … or that any investment will be completed on expected terms.” (The Tech Buzz)

Key facts & implications

  • The original announcement envisioned NVIDIA both contributing capital and enabling OpenAI’s build‑out of at least 10‑gigawatts of data‑centre capacity beginning in 2026. (The Guardian)
  • But despite the fanfare, the absence of signed contracts means much of that $100 billion remains conditional and speculative. Tech‑analysis outlets flagged this move as a “reality check” for the hyped AI deal. (The Tech Buzz)
  • The timing is critical: both companies are operating amid an AI infrastructure arms race, where chips, power, data‑centres and cloud supply chains are under pressure. Any delay or deal collapse could ripple through hardware vendors, cloud providers and AI startups alike.
  • For NVIDIA, the move may reflect caution: by formally flagging risk, it protects itself — and its stock‑holders — from the fallout should the deal not materialize. For OpenAI, it suggests that its dependency on NVIDIA may be less certain than the September announcement implied.
  • The broader takeaway: In the fast‑moving world of AI partnerships, announced investments may still be more aspirational than contractual. Eyes will now shift to whether and when definitive binding agreements get signed, and what the deliverables will be.

What to watch next

  • Will NVIDIA and OpenAI announce a signed, definitive agreement? If so, what specific terms, milestones and conditionalities will it include?
  • How will this uncertainty impact NVIDIA’s role as a dominant AI‑hardware supplier, and OpenAI’s infrastructure rollout plans?
  • Will OpenAI move more aggressively toward alternative hardware suppliers or cloud partnerships to hedge NVIDIA uncertainty?
  • Will investors and analysts re‑price the risk of large AI infrastructure deals, especially when the headlines precede the contracts?

Glossary

  • Gigawatt (GW): A unit of power equal to one billion watts. In the context of AI data centres, it signals the total computing‑power capacity being installed.
  • Definitive agreement: A legally binding contract detailing the full terms of a deal, as opposed to a memorandum of understanding or a letter of intent.
  • Risk‑factors section: In a public company’s filing (e.g., with the US SEC), a section where the company outlines known uncertainties, potential adverse outcomes or conditions that may affect future performance.

In short, what looked like a coup for NVIDIA and OpenAI now requires more than bold headlines — the fine print is due. Until definitive contracts are signed, stakeholders should treat big‑figure announcements with a grain of caution.

Source: CNBC: “Nvidia says no assurance of deal with OpenAI after $100 billion pact”

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